Things ain't going to be All White in the end...Unless we go forth, and multiply.

Is it 'racist' to worry about demographic change? What does the future look like? And why are the sands shifting?

Photo by Manuel Schinner on Unsplash

Written down it doesn’t seem such a controversial question. Unspoken, it becomes an academic question, an objective exploration seeking an evidential basis, devoid from sentiment or stigma. But could you imagine such a question being aired in the media? Studied at University? Raised on the floor of the Commons? And yet, the rate of demographic change is such that, without being openly addressed, the white British population becoming a minority in their own country is an inevitability.

Why? How? Can anything be done? Should anything be done?

Ok, so let’s start off with the facts and figures. Where we were, where we are at now, and where we are likely be based on current trajectories.

Our last census was in 2021. It could well be the last ever, with the Government announcing it intends to scrap the official Government audit of the population. To save money (of course). Although I have my doubts. I wonder whether the next census - which would have been due in 2031 - would have proven so controversial with the record rates of inward migration, that the powers that be have already decided it would be too incendiary to publish. Perhaps I’m just tinfoil hatting.

Anyway, taking out country of origin, the UK was still over 80% Caucasian, with 74% being White British. Yet if we have a look ten year’s previous, that figure has actually dropped by around 5%, representing on average a 0.5% shift year-on-year. At that rate alone, were it maintained, we’d be looking at half a century before we became a truly rainbow nation (which may still be within my lifetime).

Yet various factors mean that the rate of change is likely to be more rapid than that.

The previous mainstream prediction was that the proportion of minority groups living in Britain will rise from 10% in 2006 to 40% by 2050, according to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, has yet to be adjusted.

Professor David Coleman stated back in 2013 that if the then current trends continued, White British would become a minority before 2070, making Britain one of the world's most ethnically diverse countries in fewer than 40 years.

Professor Coleman said his assumption did not factor in future government attempts to reduce net migration. Reduce?!? What we have seen far outstrips even the boldest estimates having had 14 years of broken promises by reckless, feckless Conservative governments (I could never forgive them this irreversible cultural vandalism).

Ten years ago, net migration was around the 200,000 mark. That has almost quadrupled within a decade to three quarters of a million, grossing at over 7 figures for the last couple of years. Even the OECD said the UK tops the charts for countries with the highest figure of “permanent-style” migration. That’s right. Folk who have come to settle. Not refugees, as the Tories liked to tell us. Not students. Not seasonal workers. People with no intention of returning to their nation of birth.

The US, by comparison, is now about 65 per cent white, with that group projected to fall to 50 per cent by 2045.

As we keep being told, without net migration, the population would actually fall. So we need to bring in ‘skilled’ workers to a) do the jobs we won’t b) balance out the ageing population. As far as I can tell it’s a lazy fix to sorting out both of the above by tackling worklessness while espousing pro-natalist policies.

Mainly this is due to severely declining birthrates among the native born white population, something that was keenly observed and warned about a decade ago, but with no effort to address the problem ever being made. At this point, we are like the Giant Panda. Except unlike our ursine counterparts, we don’t seem to have a problem with fornication when one in three pregnancies ends with abortion.

Current Government forecasts predict 6.5 million more people coming to Britain over the course of the next decade, with immigration responsible for 90% of population growth. Yet it is largely predicted (but I’ll believe it when I see it) that the overall number should fall dramatically and level off. But according to The Migration Observatory, even that number settles at a still hefty 300,000 odd a year

Remember previous assumptions on demographic change predicting a white minority Britain by 2070 depended on a reduction from a net 200,000 statistic.

Even the UN’s report, ghoulishly titled ‘Replacement Migration,‘ shows that the UK as early as 2050 may have reached tipping point. The chart on the left shows the population - including offspring - without immigration, where grey rows (by age demographic) represents native born individuals and the white bars represent foreign born nationals. Now cast your eyes to the char on the right, based on the scenario of using immigration to maintain workforce, and it’s clear to see that white British are vastly outnumbered.

In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of working-age to 72 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential demographic ratios as observed in 1995, i.e. 4.1 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.

So working longer is one potential fix. The other is having babies.

In Britain, Pakistani and Bangaldeshi birthrates far outnumber those of White Brits. But why?

Well, the ONS, unsurprisingly, doesn’t even keep figures on fertility by ethnicity. So I’ve had to dig around elsewhere. This report in the journal Demographic Research points to what, to me anyway, is obvious.

The analysis shows, first, that relatively high second-, third-, and fourth-birth rates are responsible for the elevated total fertility among certain UK-born minorities, especially women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin. There is little variation in the first-birth rates among natives and immigrant descendants. Second, although fertility differences between ethnic minorities and native British women slightly decrease once religiosity and number of siblings are controlled for, significant differences persist. We conclude that cultural factors account for some elevated fertility among ethnic groups in the UK, whereas the role of education and employment seem to be only minor.

Cultural factors eh?

Let’s see how we are doing in the baby making tables:

Yep. Bottom of the class.

The study doesn’t actually outline what these cultural factors are, but I think it’s quite clear that the social taboo of childlessness has largely been erased, especially for men, while a lifestyle of instant gratification has replaced the perceived sacrifice taken to have a family. The introduction of abortion, widely available contraception, the abandonment of Christianity and the mass pornification of society is literally killing White people off. We have been having lots of sex, yet since we know how to do that without it leading to babies, we have essentially chosen pleasure over commitment. There’s something rather Biblical about the resultant punishment of such permissiveness. We are Gomorrahing ourselves.

Like all things based on instant gratification, the long run often reveals a very different picture.

Is it racist to be concerned about demographic change? Of course not. It is part of the human condition to want to see the preservation of one’s own clan. It’s worth talking about. But so, in theory, should be having babies.

The problem is the truth may prove to be a rather bitter pill for some people to swallow. It’s all very well bemoaning the rapid decline of the Anglo-Saxons, but if you aren’t prepared to put your money where your mouth is, nothing is going to change. That’s right. Grow up. Assume responsibility and fulfil your true potential as a human and become a bloody good parent. The time for dossing around is over.

We need a bold new public policy of encouraging starting a family, targeted especially at the White middle classes. We need tax perks, creches in office blocks and better state support. We need a culture that extols the virtues of parenthood rather than painting the picture of a dystopian Eastenders-esque eternal, misery-inducing toil with the loss of all pleasure and affirmation that will ultimately end with depressed people getting divorced. Billboards that promote the concept of having babies, not celebrating preventing them. Parents that nag their youngsters about settling down. And a return to lauding the joys of heteronormative family units.

Because put simply, if we do not go forth and multiply, as the Bible tells us to do, we will, quite frankly, disappear.